The pressure on GBP is enormous as GBP has become the goat of the G-10 currencies

GBPUSD: The pressure on GBP is enormous as GBP has become the goat of the G-10 currencies. One headline this morning trumpeted that GBPUSD has sold off 11 days in a row and that's the worst in 37 years (we haven't double-checked this data, but it sounds plausible). Looking at a longer term chart shows just how severe the sell-off has been. The pair found support yesterday at the 0.618 retracement level of the huge move from late 2005 lows to the Nov. 2007 top, but has since dropped even further. The 200-week moving average, which held so well the last time it was tested, also fell, as did the rising trendline stretching all the way back to 2001. The next major support comes in at 1.8000 (0.764 retracement) and then the flatline level all the way down at 1.7050. The key resistance now is the old rising trendline continuation and the 200-week moving average.

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Dolar Full Power

12/08/08

Turunnya harga minyak dari level tertigginya US$ 147 ke US$ 114 per barel membawa dampak positif bagi dolar Amerika Serikat (AS). Greenback berhasil menguat terhadap mata uang utama dunia.

Terhadap Poundsterling menguat keposisi 1,9078 naik tajam dari 2,0157 (16/06/08), terhadap Euro menguat ke level 1,4908 dari 1,6040 (16/07/08).

Hari ini GU akan mengetest ke 1.9000, bila level ini tembus akan menuju support berikutnya 1.8700.


Mata uang rupiah pun terkena imbasnya dengan sedikit melemah dengan kembali mendekati levle Rp 9.200 pe dolar AS nya.

Rupiah Makin Menarik

JAKARTA 06/08/2008

Masih tingginya inflasi bulan Juli kemarin 1,37 persen membuat Bank Indonesia (BI) kembali melanjutkan kebijakan suku bunga tinggi dengan kembali menaikkan BI rate sebesar 25 basis point menjadi 9,0 persen.

Hingga Juli lalu inflasi sudah mencapai 8,85 persen, sedangkan dari juli 2007 hingga Juli 2008 11,90 persen. Mau tidak mau bank sentral harus menaikkan kembali suku bunga patokan nya untuk mengimbangi tingginya inflasi.

Naiknya BI rate enjadi 9,0 persen membuat perbedaan dengan suku bunga Fed (2,0 persen) kian melebar menjadi 700 basis poin. Hal ini membuat berinvestasi dalam mata uang domestik kembali menarik. Sehingga para pelaku pasar terus melepas dolar. Aliran dana (Capital Inflow) asing pun akan kembali masuk. Ini membuka peluang rupiah untuk terus bergerak naik menguji ke level Rp 9.000 per dolar AS nya.

Rupiah bahkan saat ini mampu menembus dibawah level Rp 9.100 per dolar AS, dan bertengger di level 9.065 per dolar AS.

Yang menjadi dukungan pergerakan rupiah saat ini antara lain adalah terus turunnya harga minyak dari level tertingginya US$ 147 per barel dan sekarang di US$ 117 per barel. Dengan turunnya harga minyak membuat permintaan dolar dari pertamina dan PLN juga mereda, serta tekanan terhadap APBN juga berkurang.

Disisi lain grennback justru menguat terhadap mata uang kuat dunia GBP VS USD 1,9560, EURO VS USD 1.5496, serta USD VS Yen 108,38.


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