Monday, August 18, 2008

The pressure on GBP is enormous as GBP has become the goat of the G-10 currencies

GBPUSD: The pressure on GBP is enormous as GBP has become the goat of the G-10 currencies. One headline this morning trumpeted that GBPUSD has sold off 11 days in a row and that's the worst in 37 years (we haven't double-checked this data, but it sounds plausible). Looking at a longer term chart shows just how severe the sell-off has been. The pair found support yesterday at the 0.618 retracement level of the huge move from late 2005 lows to the Nov. 2007 top, but has since dropped even further. The 200-week moving average, which held so well the last time it was tested, also fell, as did the rising trendline stretching all the way back to 2001. The next major support comes in at 1.8000 (0.764 retracement) and then the flatline level all the way down at 1.7050. The key resistance now is the old rising trendline continuation and the 200-week moving average.

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