Rupiah Loyo
Kenaikan harga barang menjelang kenaikan harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM) membuat khawatir para pelaku pasar bahwa inflasi akan tinggi. Sehingga rupiah pun mulai terlihat loyo terhadap dolar AS dan berada di level Rp 9.310 per dolar AS siang ini.
Dilain pihak memang dolar mulai menunjukkan keperkasaannya terhadap mata uang dunia seperti yen mencapai 104,92, pounds 1,9477, serta Euro 1,5496. Penguatan dolar ini dipicu oleh membaiknya data data ekonomi Amerika, serta perkiraan bahwa bank sentral AS (The Fed) akan mulai menghentikan penurunan suku bunganya.
Hal ini dikarenakan bahwa dampak krisis kredit perumahan (Subprime Mortgage) tidak seburuk yang diperkirakan.
Tingginya harga minyak masih menjadi ancaman bagi pergerakan rupiah. Dengan tingginya minyak permintaan korporat untuk biaya impor minyak juga akan membengkak, sehingga juga turut mendorong pelemahan rupiah.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Ayat - Ayat Fitna
New book takes on 'Fitna' verses
Erwida Maulia , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta
Noted Koranic scientist Quraish Shihab has written a book to counter the "false accusations against Islam" contained in the controversial movie Fitna, released recently by Dutch politician Geert Wilders.
Ayat-Ayat Fitna, Sekelumit Keadaban Islam di Tengah Purbasangka (Fitna Verses, a Tiny Bit of Islamic Civility in the Middle of Prejudice), launched in Jakarta on Sunday, refutes Wilders' misleading interpretations of the five Koranic verses quoted in the film.
In the 90-page book, Quraish clarifies each of the verses, reflecting the interpretations to which Muslims worldwide generally adhere.
Wilders' short film features footage of the September 11 attacks and the Madrid train bombing, preceded by a recitation of Verse 60 of the Koran's Sura Al-Anfal (8).
The verse is translated in Fitna as: "Prepare for them whatever force and cavalry ye are able of gathering, to strike terror into the hearts of the enemies of Allah and your enemies."
The implication is the Koran instructs Muslims to commit acts of terrorism.
Quraish said Wilders had distorted the meaning of the verse by excluding the five preceding verses (Sura 8:55 to 8:59), which put the excerpt in context.
The verse actually refers to attitudes when facing battle, not daily life, said the former rector of Jakarta's Syarif Hidayatullah State Institute of Islamic Studies, now the State Islamic University.
"Strike terror", he said, was intended to prevent enemies in a battle from attacking, which could therefore prevent the battle itself, as battle was not always inevitable when defending oneself or one's territory, religion or nation.
Such self-defense in battle, Quraish said, is different from terrorism.
He said the word "enemies" referred to those who violated treaties, hence provoking war.
A state of war and the betrayal of a pact also form the context of Verse 4 in the Sura Muhammad (47), which Wilders "abruptly cut" and "wrongly translated", Quraish said.
To clarify the meaning of Verse 39 in Al-Anfal, the final sura quoted in the film, the prominent Koranic exegete said warfare was the very last option Muslims could take, "should they find no other way to avoid oppression or ensure security".
Even if Muslims must become involved in a war, he added, they must obey rules such as not attacking women or children, not cutting down trees and not destroying the environment.
Quraish also gave elucidations of the other two verses quoted, 56 and 89 in Sura An-Nisaa (4), which Wilders used as examples of the Koran's anti-Semitism and instructions to kill non-Muslims.
Quraish said any interpretation of the verses could not separate them from those that preceded and followed them if their true context and meaning were to be understood.
He said Fitna (an Arabic term for "false accusation") was an appropriate title for the movie, as it "describes the real intention of its maker, that is, slandering Islam and its holy book".
In the last chapter of his book, Quraish calls on Muslims to deal with Fitna firmly and patiently by refraining from "anything detrimental to Islam or to Muslims themselves".
He said it was normal for Muslims to protest against the movie and "break off relations or partnerships with those who support the harassment".
He advised Muslims not to make general assumptions about innocent people or groups and to keep treating everyone fairly.
Ayat - ayat fitna:
Sekelumit Keadaban Islam di Tengah Purbasangka
oleh: M. Quraish Shihab
Dengan kesejukannya quraish Shihab mengajak kita menyikapi film "fitna" dari Belanda
"Ambillah yang mudah, peringatkanlah yang baik, dan berpalinglah dari orang jail (QS al-A'raf <7>: 199
e-book ayat - ayat fitna dapat di download disini
atawa ayat - ayat fitna
Erwida Maulia , The Jakarta Post , Jakarta
Noted Koranic scientist Quraish Shihab has written a book to counter the "false accusations against Islam" contained in the controversial movie Fitna, released recently by Dutch politician Geert Wilders.
Ayat-Ayat Fitna, Sekelumit Keadaban Islam di Tengah Purbasangka (Fitna Verses, a Tiny Bit of Islamic Civility in the Middle of Prejudice), launched in Jakarta on Sunday, refutes Wilders' misleading interpretations of the five Koranic verses quoted in the film.
In the 90-page book, Quraish clarifies each of the verses, reflecting the interpretations to which Muslims worldwide generally adhere.
Wilders' short film features footage of the September 11 attacks and the Madrid train bombing, preceded by a recitation of Verse 60 of the Koran's Sura Al-Anfal (8).
The verse is translated in Fitna as: "Prepare for them whatever force and cavalry ye are able of gathering, to strike terror into the hearts of the enemies of Allah and your enemies."
The implication is the Koran instructs Muslims to commit acts of terrorism.
Quraish said Wilders had distorted the meaning of the verse by excluding the five preceding verses (Sura 8:55 to 8:59), which put the excerpt in context.
The verse actually refers to attitudes when facing battle, not daily life, said the former rector of Jakarta's Syarif Hidayatullah State Institute of Islamic Studies, now the State Islamic University.
"Strike terror", he said, was intended to prevent enemies in a battle from attacking, which could therefore prevent the battle itself, as battle was not always inevitable when defending oneself or one's territory, religion or nation.
Such self-defense in battle, Quraish said, is different from terrorism.
He said the word "enemies" referred to those who violated treaties, hence provoking war.
A state of war and the betrayal of a pact also form the context of Verse 4 in the Sura Muhammad (47), which Wilders "abruptly cut" and "wrongly translated", Quraish said.
To clarify the meaning of Verse 39 in Al-Anfal, the final sura quoted in the film, the prominent Koranic exegete said warfare was the very last option Muslims could take, "should they find no other way to avoid oppression or ensure security".
Even if Muslims must become involved in a war, he added, they must obey rules such as not attacking women or children, not cutting down trees and not destroying the environment.
Quraish also gave elucidations of the other two verses quoted, 56 and 89 in Sura An-Nisaa (4), which Wilders used as examples of the Koran's anti-Semitism and instructions to kill non-Muslims.
Quraish said any interpretation of the verses could not separate them from those that preceded and followed them if their true context and meaning were to be understood.
He said Fitna (an Arabic term for "false accusation") was an appropriate title for the movie, as it "describes the real intention of its maker, that is, slandering Islam and its holy book".
In the last chapter of his book, Quraish calls on Muslims to deal with Fitna firmly and patiently by refraining from "anything detrimental to Islam or to Muslims themselves".
He said it was normal for Muslims to protest against the movie and "break off relations or partnerships with those who support the harassment".
He advised Muslims not to make general assumptions about innocent people or groups and to keep treating everyone fairly.
Ayat - ayat fitna:
Sekelumit Keadaban Islam di Tengah Purbasangka
oleh: M. Quraish Shihab
Dengan kesejukannya quraish Shihab mengajak kita menyikapi film "fitna" dari Belanda
"Ambillah yang mudah, peringatkanlah yang baik, dan berpalinglah dari orang jail (QS al-A'raf <7>: 199
e-book ayat - ayat fitna dapat di download disini
atawa ayat - ayat fitna
Monday, May 12, 2008
Mata Uang Regional Terdepresiasi
Mata uang regional terdepresiasi terhadap dolar AS pada transaksi valuta kemarin.Mata uang yen melemah 1,085 poin ke level 103,945 per dolar AS, Bath Thailand jatuh 0,18 poin ke level 32,19, Won Korea terpuruk 2 poin menjadi 1045,5, serta peso philipina turun 0,243 poin ke level 42,663 per dolar AS.
Rupiah pun terkena dampaknya, pada transaksi kemarin rupiah ditutup kembali melemah 4 poin menjadi Rp 9.239 per dolar AS dibanding penutupan sebelumnya Rp 9.235 per dolar AS.
Untuk saat ini rupiah akan bergerak dengan batas bawah Rp 9.200 dan batas atas Rp 9.300. Sentimen negatif dari melambungnya harga minyak mentah dunia membuat rupiah sukar untuk meguat lebih jauh. Tetapi Bank Indonesia (BI) tidak akan membiarkan rupiah akan berada diatas Rp 9.300 per dolar AS nya. Saat ini BI lebih siap menjaga rupiah agar tidak terpuruk dengan senjata cadangan devisa yang cukup memadai dibanding satu dekade terakhir.
Minyak akan ke US$ 200 per barel
Harga minyak yang cenderung dinamis dan diprediksikan akan ke level US$ 200 per barel dalam 2 tahun mendatang kini sudah berada diatas US$125 per barel.
Wednesday, May 7, 2008
BI rate naik 25 basis point
BI Rate naik pertama kali dalam 28 bulan terakhir atau 7 kali selama BI Rate mulai diberlakukan Juli 2005. Suku bunga patokan Bi Rate akhirnya naik 25 basis point menjadi 8,25 persen karena tuntutan dari tingginya inflasi year on year sampai bulan april lalu 8,96 persen.
Terakhir kali Bank Indonesia menaikkan suku bunga Patokan BI rate bulan Desember 2005 imbas dari kenaikan Bahan Bakar Minyak (BBM) lebih dari 100 persen, yakni sebesar 50 basis point menjadi 12,75 persen.
Rencana Pemerintah akan menaikkan kembali bbm sekitar 30 persen diperkirakan juga akan mendorong bank sentral akan kembali menaikkan suku bunga BI Rate. Dengan dinaikkan harga bbm bersubsidi 30 persen akan berpotensi meningkatkatkan laju inflasi 1 - 3 persen.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
harga komoditi
Harga Komoditas (5/5/2008)
BRENT CRUDE FUTR (USD/bbl.) 117,99
GAS OIL FUT (ICE) (USD/MT) 1.079,75
GASOLINE RBOB FUT (USd/gal.) 305,29
HEATING OIL FUTR (USd/gal.) 330,65
NATURAL GAS FUTR (USD/MMBtu) 11,18
WTI CRUDE FUTURE (USD/bbl.) 119,97
COCOA FUTURE (USD/MT) 2.631,00
COCOA FUTURE - LI (GBP/MT) 1.407,00
COFFEE 'C' FUTURE (USd/lb.) 132,60
CORN FUTURE (USd/bu.) 594,00
COTTON NO.2 FUTR (USd/lb.) 69,29
FCOJ-A FUTURE (USd/lb.) 120,70
SOYBEAN FUTURE (USd/bu.) 1.286,00
SOYBEAN MEAL FUTR (USD/T.) 331,00
SOYBEAN OIL FUTR (USd/lb.) 57,37
SUGAR #11 (WORLD) (USd/lb.) 11,48
WHEAT FUTURE(CBT) (USd/bu.) 805,50
WHEAT FUTURE(KCB) (USd/bu.) 856,00
COPPER FUTURE (USd/lb.) 394,75
LME ALUM HG FUTUR (USD/MT) 2.884,00
LME COPPER FUTURE (USD/MT) 8.511,50
LME LEAD FUTURE (USD/MT) 2.574,00
LME NICKEL FUTURE (USD/MT) 28.275,00
LME ZINC FUTURE (USD/MT) 2.199,00
GOLD 100 OZ FUTR (USD/t oz.) 874,10
SILVER FUTURE (USD/t oz.) 16,83
CATTLE FEEDER FUT (USd/lb.) 108,25
LEAN HOGS FUTURE (USd/lb.) 73,20
LIVE CATTLE FUTR (USd/lb.) 91,20
sumber: bloomberg
BRENT CRUDE FUTR (USD/bbl.) 117,99
GAS OIL FUT (ICE) (USD/MT) 1.079,75
GASOLINE RBOB FUT (USd/gal.) 305,29
HEATING OIL FUTR (USd/gal.) 330,65
NATURAL GAS FUTR (USD/MMBtu) 11,18
WTI CRUDE FUTURE (USD/bbl.) 119,97
COCOA FUTURE (USD/MT) 2.631,00
COCOA FUTURE - LI (GBP/MT) 1.407,00
COFFEE 'C' FUTURE (USd/lb.) 132,60
CORN FUTURE (USd/bu.) 594,00
COTTON NO.2 FUTR (USd/lb.) 69,29
FCOJ-A FUTURE (USd/lb.) 120,70
SOYBEAN FUTURE (USd/bu.) 1.286,00
SOYBEAN MEAL FUTR (USD/T.) 331,00
SOYBEAN OIL FUTR (USd/lb.) 57,37
SUGAR #11 (WORLD) (USd/lb.) 11,48
WHEAT FUTURE(CBT) (USd/bu.) 805,50
WHEAT FUTURE(KCB) (USd/bu.) 856,00
COPPER FUTURE (USd/lb.) 394,75
LME ALUM HG FUTUR (USD/MT) 2.884,00
LME COPPER FUTURE (USD/MT) 8.511,50
LME LEAD FUTURE (USD/MT) 2.574,00
LME NICKEL FUTURE (USD/MT) 28.275,00
LME ZINC FUTURE (USD/MT) 2.199,00
GOLD 100 OZ FUTR (USD/t oz.) 874,10
SILVER FUTURE (USD/t oz.) 16,83
CATTLE FEEDER FUT (USd/lb.) 108,25
LEAN HOGS FUTURE (USd/lb.) 73,20
LIVE CATTLE FUTR (USd/lb.) 91,20
sumber: bloomberg
Harga Minyak diatas US$ 120 per barel
Membaiknya data - data ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) diartikan oleh pasar bahwa ekonomi AS masih tumbuh dan ini akan kembali memerlukan energi terutama minyak. ALhasil, harga minyak mentah jenis crude sweet kembali meroket diatas US$120,20 per barel.
Selain itu, recoverynya dolar terhadap euro dan yen juga berdampak para investor kembali beralih memburu komoditas, sehingga harga minyak, dan komoditas lainnya kembali melambung.
BI Rate Masih Akan Bertahan di 8,00 persen
Bank Indonesia tampaknya masih akan mempertahankan suku bunga patokannya di level 8,0 persen walaupun inflasi Year on Year sudah mencapai 8,96 persen, dan inflasi tahun kalender jan - Apr mencapai 4,01 persen. Karena inflasi bulan April lalu 0,57 persen lebih rendah bila dibandingkan bulan sebelumnya.
Dengan demikian sudah terjadi negatif spread dimana suku bunga BI Rate 8,0 persen sedangkan inflasinya mencapai 8,96 persen.Artinya bila kita investasi dalam mata uang rupiah kita sudah tidak mendapat keuntungan karena tingginya inflasi saat ini.
Hal inilah yang membuat rupiah sudah tidak menarik lagi untuk berinvestasi. Walaupun perbedaan suku bunga sebesar 600 basis point antara mata uang dolar 2,0 persen sedangkan rupiah 8,0 persen menjadi mentah. Para pelaku pasar cenderung memegang dolar untuk saat ini.
Dengan demikian sudah terjadi negatif spread dimana suku bunga BI Rate 8,0 persen sedangkan inflasinya mencapai 8,96 persen.Artinya bila kita investasi dalam mata uang rupiah kita sudah tidak mendapat keuntungan karena tingginya inflasi saat ini.
Hal inilah yang membuat rupiah sudah tidak menarik lagi untuk berinvestasi. Walaupun perbedaan suku bunga sebesar 600 basis point antara mata uang dolar 2,0 persen sedangkan rupiah 8,0 persen menjadi mentah. Para pelaku pasar cenderung memegang dolar untuk saat ini.
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